Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.053900 0.061270 0.069517 0.079475 0.091232 0.104741 0.121542
2026-01-25 0.043006 0.052156 0.063251 0.077846 0.096771 0.120802 0.154143
2026-02-01 0.034507 0.044150 0.056656 0.074374 0.099349 0.134111 0.187659
2026-02-08 0.029460 0.039617 0.053650 0.075010 0.107728 0.157770 0.243958
2026-02-15 0.025455 0.035813 0.050984 0.075690 0.116702 0.185637 0.318989
2026-02-22 0.022457 0.032957 0.049205 0.077452 0.128246 0.222299 0.428325
2026-03-01 0.019903 0.030353 0.047364 0.078817 0.139921 0.264549 0.575376
2026-03-08 0.017347 0.027338 0.044330 0.077497 0.146588 0.300782 0.737101
2026-03-15 0.014702 0.023775 0.039752 0.072330 0.144215 0.317356 0.865039
2026-03-22 0.013264 0.022089 0.038256 0.072946 0.154904 0.371586 1.161728
2026-03-29 0.012227 0.020963 0.037619 0.075264 0.170786 0.450033 1.646781
2026-04-05 0.011162 0.019629 0.036348 0.075931 0.183153 0.527829 2.263249
2026-04-12 0.010184 0.018350 0.035027 0.076355 0.195869 0.619699 3.165191
2026-04-19 0.009163 0.016845 0.032983 0.074546 0.201726 0.693938 4.184853
2026-04-26 0.008162 0.015254 0.030502 0.071053 0.201211 0.744741 5.234624
2026-05-03 0.007553 0.014402 0.029553 0.071489 0.214504 0.873972 7.602528
2026-05-10 0.007019 0.013641 0.028692 0.071992 0.228752 1.028429 11.311022
2026-05-17 0.006600 0.013076 0.028212 0.073534 0.248324 1.244314 18.105682
2026-05-24 0.006205 0.012516 0.027652 0.074717 0.267617 1.495114 29.567952
2026-05-31 0.005739 0.011736 0.026410 0.073402 0.275555 1.684145 43.902333
2026-06-07 0.005173 0.010662 0.024247 0.068505 0.264382 1.705777 53.125358
2026-06-14 0.004884 0.010213 0.023691 0.069032 0.280878 2.015502 91.609796
2026-06-21 0.004679 0.009944 0.023581 0.071157 0.307728 2.508352 190.445532